The S&P 500 has been delivering a classic Santa rally into year-end. At the same time, however, analysts have also been turning more cautious on earnings: The breadth of revisions in next-12 months…
Oil is breaking down from key moving averages, a sign that economic momentum is weakening. Recessions can be very opportunistic for trading oil, as volatility spikes around these episodes. A…
Fed pivots usually lead to a higher stock market. When Fed pivots occur outside of recessions, stocks rise. When Fed pivots occur during recessions, stocks rise. But pivots don’t help…
Today’s weak level of existing home sales (4 million/year) are similar to the 2008 real estate bust. History shows that weak housing eventually leads to weaker economic activity. Existing home…
At 19x the S&P 500’s 12-month forward-P/E is among the most expensive in the last nearly 40 years. But it looks even more expensive when we look at consumer sentiment.…
Uranium prices nearly doubled in 2023. That was driven by a surge in demand from utilities securing supply against a potential cut-off from Russia, and little uranium to go around.…
The S&P 500 fell 10% from July as interest rates surged. The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5%, a level last seen in 2007. With stocks now cheaper, are we about…
The 2-Year Treasury yield has dropped 80 basis points after peaking in October. That reflects the market pricing a Fed that’s shifting from fighting inflation to cutting rates to avoid…